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2012 Technology Predictions

2011 was another great year for technology with a continued explosion of smartphones, tablets, cloud computing, online backup, and managed services. The following are some intriguing possibilities for 2012:

  1. Apple failure in the enterprise. 2012 will be the start of a general decline for Apple. While it will be subtle and not a function of revenue, the stock price cannot remain so high. Windows and Droid offer better features and more choice at a fraction of iPhone. With no tools to manage iPads in Active Directory, Microsoft will have a distinct advantage in the enterprise for Windows 8 tablets (without the need for the problematic iTunes) at less cost, and easier to use for consumers as well. The huge gamble with digital publishing will face stiff resistance from government, Google, and Amazon.
  2. Windows will have 35% of smartphone market share, mainly because of choice of manufacturers (addition of Nokia worldwide), easier to use Metro style interface, and more productivity without third-party apps. Apple will still lead, followed closely by Droid, and then Windows. 2012 will be the swing year because of the high cost of iPhone with no foreseeable advantages in features.
  3. Windows 8 Tablet takes the enterprise. Manageability will be key with Active Directory, along with integration for on-premise and online services from Office 365 to CRM and Dynamics (all without downloading apps).
  4. SEO for everyone. You’ve been hearing the XM spots about the top 5 things all business owners should know to dominate the competition, but 2012 will mark an exponential explosion of content on the web. For those wanting to compete, the 10 page brochure site will be replaced by the average 125 page site for customers.
  5. Big data forces storage recognition and online backup use. The average small to medium-sized business will have 2-3 terabytes of data in which technology like Storage Attached Networks (SAN) must be used for quick restore from snapshots and cheap replication for off-site backup. Tapes will take days for backup and failure rate and cost will be too great.
  6. Social media rules as content marketing. Video will be a key differentiator along with learning the ins and outs of the major platforms. Don’t join the conversation. Listen to customers, monitor competitors, and broadcast useful content for visits to your site.
  7. Software as a service or cloud computing will overtake on-premise options. Whether it is Office 365 or Google Apps, that business continuity thing that everyone wants but was too complex and expensive is now in reach – not including at less cost than on-premise with no upgrade concerns and better availability and security.
  8. IT jobs are changing and many will be lost. Mamas don’t let your babies grow up in IT. That huge area of infrastructure need will be decimated by online services and everyone in the industry must bring true business skills to the table and do brain work to help your organization.
  9. Managed Services will handle the majority of most business IT needs with more knowledge and resources at less cost than training, retaining, and growing full IT staffs.
  10. Mayan Calendar will start over. Or maybe it won’t, but the world is definitely not going to end.

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